The attacks by the US and Israel against Iran continue. In the strikes, Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials alongside him were killed. With the ongoing mutual attacks, many countries in the Middle East have also directly become parties to the war. 

 

While the war continues, the peoples of Iran, who have resisted the regime for years, persist in voicing their demands for change. Evaluating possible developments in Iran, Rojhilat writer Kakşar Oremar said that every dictator who departs opens a new path before a people seeking freedom.

 

“This is especially important for nation-states where many peoples live together, and Iran is one of them. Khamenei is among those who have dealt the heaviest blows to the Kurds and Kurdish movements,” he said. He recalled that at the end of the 1980s prominent Kurdish figures were assassinated and that Kurdistan was militarized, with schools and workplaces in Kurdish regions of Iran turned into military headquarters. 

 

He stated that the presence of Israeli agents in all units within Iran had already indicated that such attacks would occur, and that the objective during the 12-Day War was to kill Khamenei. Oremar said the US had sought to sit at the negotiating table, but Khamenei did not abandon his own policies in negotiations.

 

“Until he was killed, Khamenei did not retreat from his hardline stance. During his period, tens of thousands of people were killed, executed, or exiled. In the 12-Day War, they generally targeted commanders, but this time they killed the highest authorities and decision-makers,” he said.

 

 

‘THE WAR WILL NOT GO FURTHER’

 

Oremar stated that Iran still has one option before it. Recalling Trump’s recent speech in which he said negotiations were close but that Iran, despite lacking strength, would escalate its attacks, Oremar noted that it remains uncertain what will follow the newly launched strikes. He pointed out that Iran is experiencing an economic, political and legitimacy crisis, and that both society and the state are weakened.

 

Stating that the state has weakened society through massacres, Oremar added: “The result is clear: Khamenei and his team were killed. We can say that Iran is now experiencing great fear. Those defending the regime are feeling this fear. On one side there is celebration, on the other side mourning. There may be a call to return to the negotiating table tomorrow, but Iran will not accept it. If it does, it will face a major political collapse. I do not think the war will go further. At the moment, two similar administrations appear to be emerging; on one side Pahlavi, on the other Kurdish political parties have come together. In this situation, not in the Kurdish region but in other areas, we can say that heavy clashes may occur between supporters of a transitional government and regime loyalists. These two forces have no real base in Kurdistan. At present, Iran has no option other than returning to the negotiating table.”

 

‘THE ENTIRE REGION IS UNDER FIRE’

 

“This war has set the entire region ablaze,” Oremar said, noting that the Middle East is experiencing a major crisis. He stated that oil prices have already risen sharply and that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an even greater crisis, adding that the US would intervene in such a scenario.

 

Oremar said the most important force in Iran is the forces of Kurdistan, and that due to Kurdistan’s geopolitical position, the political and economic crisis would affect the world.He stated that the US wants the regime to disappear but has not found the system or the person to replace it, while Israel prefers the regime to remain in a different form. Oremar said the aim is to keep Iran under control, while Iran’s goal is to preserve the regime, and under these conditions it may again seek negotiations with the US and Europe.

 

Oremar added that the policy pursued by Iran will not benefit it, and that the US and Israel may, depending on circumstances, also prefer not to change the regime. “Because they want the Shiite-Sunni blocs led by Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia to remain, in order to keep Salafi Islamism under control. They brought forces such as al-Colani to Syria and the Taliban to Afghanistan. These forces wanted to create a new Afghanistan in Syria as well, but the Kurds did not allow this,” he said.

 

‘THE KURDS MUST BE CAREFUL’

 

Stating that Iran has entered a new path, Oremar said the regime is experiencing fear due to the protests that have begun, which can be seen in the internet shutdowns and the killings of people.

 

He emphasized that the regime does not listen to the people’s demands, and that the people have not yet been able to fully demonstrate their power. He said a section of the population seeks a new dictatorial regime with Pahlavi.

 

Underlining that the Kurds differ from other peoples on this issue, Oremar said: “The Kurds constantly adapt to change. Kurdistan currently appears almost like a separate state from Iran. At present, the Kurds have no closeness to any political current in Iran; they only trust their own parties. The Kurds must be very careful in this war. They need to think strategically for their own interests. The people are very tired, and individuals have been reduced to struggling for their daily bread.”

 

‘CHANGE BEGAN IN KURDISTAN’

 

Saying that the coming together of the Kurds has created a significant impact both inside and outside Iran, Oremar stated: “Kurdish society has been ready for change for years. The Kurds are organized and in a position to govern themselves. There is already unity among the Kurds and their political parties. For example, when a strike call is made, all Kurds comply. The US could play a role for the Kurds here similar to the one it played in Iraq against Saddam Hussein. The Kurds see the solution to problems in democracy. In any change that occurs in Iran, the Kurds will inevitably gain an important status in the country.”

 

Regarding what kind of system should be established in Iran, Oremar concluded: “For the peoples of Iran, the most important system is a federal structure. If authority is granted to the Kurds, a system can be established in which all peoples can live together. Each people must be able to freely conduct their lives and politics in their own regions. For instance, the places where poverty is most severe, where the highest number of people are imprisoned, and where the greatest sacrifices have been made are the cities of Kurdistan. The people of Iran must change this regime and make a secular structure permanent. After the ‘Jin, jiyan, azadî (Woman, life, freedom)’ uprising, this opportunity emerged. This change began in Kurdistan; we will see how much this philosophy will be put into practice.”

 

MA / Adnan Bilen