Following the attacks by Turkey-backed paramilitary groups and Heyet Tahrir el-Şam (HTS) against the regions of the North and East Syria Autonomous Administration, the country has been driven into major chaos. After the 30 January agreement, clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and HTS and Turkey-backed groups partially subsided, yet the siege of Kobanê has entered its 35th day. Meanwhile, in Raqqa, Tabqa and Deir ez-Zor, people continue their protests against the economic crisis, security problems and repressive policies. ISIS activities in the region are also continuing in parallel.

 

RISK OF AN ATTACK ON KOBANÊ

 

With attacks that began after 6 January in the Euphrates region of North and East Syria, Turkey-backed paramilitary groups took control in the area. The siege of Kobanê has been carried out directly by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) groups. Groups such as Ahrar al-Sharqiya (Emşat) and the Sultan Murad Division, which are on international sanctions lists for crimes including murder, theft, rape and looting, continue their activities around Kobanê through looting, killing and abduction. According to information from the ground, these groups are preparing for a heavy weapons assault on Kobanê and have intensified military reinforcements. It is reported that the paramilitary groups are preparing for an attack following a siege similar to the tactic used in Sheikh Maqsoud, while Turkey is reportedly digging trenches and making war preparations along the Suruç (Pirsûs)–Kobanê line in support.

 

TENSION BETWEEN TRIBES AND HTS IN DEIR EZ-ZOR

 

At the same time, disagreements between Arab tribes and HTS over the economy and oil wells are deepening in Raqqa, Daraa, Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo. Particularly in Deir ez-Zor, tribal protests against HTS are increasing, and according to local sources, this tension raises the risk of a major future confrontation. HTS and Turkey-backed groups are reportedly struggling to establish dominance in these areas, as HTS’s military capacity is said to be insufficient against the tribes. Field information indicates that HTS has begun deploying forces from different parts of Syria to the region, while Turkey-backed paramilitary groups are also being transferred there. After oil wells were handed over to US companies, tribes have reportedly taken a stance against HTS, and this situation is said to carry the potential to trigger major chaos in the coming period.

 

TRIBES IN DEIR EZ-ZOR SEEK SDF

 

Following the SDF’s withdrawal from certain areas, HTS’s approach toward the tribes and the transfer of oil to areas under HTS control have led to sporadic clashes. After HTS attacks and the SDF’s withdrawal, tribes are said to be seeking the SDF once again. Local sources report that tribes may make a renewed call to the SDF on a democratic basis, as they reportedly see the SDF as an alternative force in the Syrian arena.

 

ISRAEL ADVANCES VILLAGE BY VILLAGE IN THE SOUTH

 

In southern Syria, Israel is reported to be advancing toward Damascus. Following the agreement reached in Paris on 6 January between Israel and Damascus, attacks by HTS and Turkey-backed groups against Kurdish regions have in a sense overshadowed this advance. According to sources, around the Golan Heights Israel is moving forward village by village every day, taking control of residential areas.

 

PREPARATIONS ON THE IRAQI BORDER

 

There is also a state of alert along the Iraqi border. After attacks began against North and East Syria, Iraq deployed significant military reinforcements to the border line. Hashd al-Shaabi forces have also gone on war alert. The US military build-up against Iran has created expectations of a possible intervention, and it is stated that such an intervention would not be limited to Iran but could also include Hezbollah and Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq. In Syria, HTS and Turkey-backed paramilitary groups continue their deployments. However, HTS’s operational capacity toward Iraq is reportedly limited due to its clashes with tribes.

 

CONCLUSION

 

Developments in Syria reveal that chaos and instability in the region are deepening. While attacks by Turkey-backed paramilitary groups and HTS, as well as the siege of Kobanê, are creating serious pressure on the population and tribes, tensions over oil and economic resources are fueling conflicts. Following the SDF’s withdrawal from certain areas, the resulting power vacuum, combined with HTS and paramilitary groups’ attempts to assert control, is leading to new tensions among tribes. Israel’s advance in the south and military preparations along the Iraqi border are further escalating tensions in Syria. Chaos and uncertainty in the region are expected to persist for a long time.

 

MA / E. Pejder Altan